Will A ‘No Deal Brexit’ Affect Derby House Prices

By Daren Cope.

I remember back in April 2020 when the major financial economists and property market commenters were sounding the alarm. The very best-case scenario was a 5% drop in property values by the end of the year, and most were in the 10% to 15% range. They forewarned the Covid-19 stimulated recession would trim tens of thousands of pounds off the value of UK homes.

However, the property market didn’t seem to receive the memo and now, as we find ourselves at the end of 2020 and the worst of lockdown restrictions appear to be passed, vaccinations on the way and economy starting to grow, property prices seem to be doing quite well.

What happened to the Derby house price crash that wasn’t?

Before I answer that question, it reminded me of what the Treasury said in 2016 about a leave vote on the Brexit referendum.

The considered opinion of the Treasury was house prices would drop by 18% if the country voted to leave the EU, so let us see what that would have done to Derby house prices if that had taken place and then what exactly has happened in the last four and half years…

 

Average Value
2016

Predicted Drop by
The Treasury because
of Brexit
Average Value
Today
Uplift in Value
in last 4.5 years

% Increase since
Brexit Vote

Derby
Detached
£271,000 £222,200 £299,300 £28,300 11.5%
Derby
Semi-detached
£150,100 £123,100 £170,400 £20,300 12.6%
Derby
Terraced / Town House
£123,100 £100,900 £134,600 £11,500 10.3%
Derby
Apartments
£113,400 £93,000 £129,800 £16,400 13.5%

So why has the Derby property market not matched the property pundits twice in the last five or so years?

For most of us, owning a property is about having somewhere to live rather than an investment – an Englishman’s home is his castle and all that! Nevertheless, once a homeowner is on the proverbial ‘property ladder’, it cannot be denied that it is eternally beneficial to know, as a homeowner, that you have made a healthy investment in your home and that the value will rise to alleviate the ache of trading up market – or down market when you retire.

Those Derby homeowners who own detached homes would have made an average of £28,300 profit, a rise of 11.5% or a weekly profit of £108.85 – calculated between the price they would have paid in the summer of 2016 and the price they would sell for today. Looking at the weekly profit for all property types in Derby since the Brexit vote…

  • Derby detached homes weekly profit of £108.85 per week
  • Derby semi-detached homes weekly profit of £78.08 per week
  • Derby terraced homes/town homes weekly profit of £44.23 per week
  • Derby apartments weekly profit of £63.08 per week

Whilst it is no surprise the recent property market boom was inspired by the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty holiday, this is not exclusively the Chancellor’s achievement. The three ‘D’s have been with us throughout 2020, Covid or no Covid; Debt, Divorce and Death, together with a huge shift in the way Derby homeowners see their homes.

Many of us have been cooped up during lockdown and working from our dining room tables. This has had a massive effect on the wants and needs of Derby people to have a home with an extra bedroom to work from as well as now wanting a garden.  This has certainly been one of the biggest challenges this year… hence the rise in demand for properties of this type.

So, what of 2021? It’s true that the country will have high unemployment, yet at the same time, we have ultra-low interest rates and for the last 20 years, on average we have only built 150,000 households per year as a nation, but needed 300,000 per year to keep up with immigration, people living longer and changes in the way households are made up, compared to the Millennium.

Many people may predict what will happen – yet none of us really know what will actually happen to the Derby property market in 2021.

Covid was a black swan event and the fallout from that, I believe, has changed Derby peoples’ lives and their lifestyles, especially how they see their home.

Instead of making predictions, nothing can get away from property market fundamentals, which have driven price booms on the back of high demand for homes and low supply and price crashes on the back of over-supply and low demand.

Only time will tell if, in 2021, the Derby property market will see a flood of properties coming to the market because of debt or the demand for larger homes continues to rise unabated.

Please do let me know your thoughts on the matter at darenc@professionalproperties.co.uk.